Indonesia Trade Balance


Indonesia: Exports decline in December, but trade balance swings to surplus

February 2, 2015

Exports contracted 13.8% in December over the same month of the previous year, which followed the 14.6% decline observed in November and marked the third consecutive contraction. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 9.5% in December (November: -12.6% year-on-year). Similarly, oil and gas exports contracted 30.9% (November: -23.9% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 6.6% in December, which followed the 7.3% contraction in November.

The trade balance swung from a USD 425 million deficit in November to a modest USD 187 million surplus in December. However, this result was significantly below the USD 1.5 billion surplus recorded in the same month of 2013. The reading was roughly in line with the USD 190 million deficit the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance tumbled from a USD 0.6 billion deficit in November to a USD 1.9 billion deficit in December.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 5.5% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 8.0 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 12.2% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 15.9 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m December 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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