Indonesia Trade Balance


Indonesia: Exports decline again in February, but trade surplus holds amid slumping imports

February 16, 2015

Exports contracted 16.0% in February over the same month of last year, which followed the 7.7% decline observed in January. February’s result marked the largest contraction since August 2012 and the fifth consecutive loss. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, dropped 12.7% in February (January: -5.8% year-on-year). Similarly, oil and gas exports contracted 30.6% (January: -17.0% yoy). Meanwhile, imports fell 16.2% in January, which followed the 15.4% contraction in December.

The trade balance narrowed marginally from a USD 744 million surplus in January to a USD 738 million surplus in February. This result was somewhat smaller than the USD 843 million surplus recorded in the same month of 2014. However, the reading overshot the USD 635 million surplus the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance widened slightly from a USD 0.7 billion deficit in January to a USD 0.8 billion deficit in February.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 5.5% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 8.0 billion surplus in 2015. For 2016, the panel expects exports to grow 12.2% and expects the trade surplus to reach USD 15.9 billion.

Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart

Indonesia Trade12m January 2015 1

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.

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