Indonesia Trade Balance

Indonesia

Indonesia: Exports contract in July, but trade balance returns to surplus on steeper decline in imports

September 1, 2014

Exports fell 6.0% in July over the same month last year and contrasted the 4.4% increase observed in June. Non-oil and gas exports, which account for the majority of Indonesian shipments, decreased 9.2% in July (June: +5.6% year-on-year). Oil and gas exports rebounded to an 11.6% increase (June: -0.5% yoy). Meanwhile, imports plunged from a 0.4% expansion in June to a 19.3% contraction in July. This marked the steepest drop in imports since September 2009, and was driven by a decline in demand during the holy month of Ramadan.

The trade balance swung from a USD 288 million deficit in June to a USD 124 million surplus, which greatly contrasted the USD 2.3 billion shortfall recorded in the same month last year. Moreover, the reading contrasted USD 427 deficit the market had expected. Meanwhile, the 12-month moving sum of the trade balance posted a surplus of USD 0.6 billion in July, which was a turnaround from the USD 1.9 billion deficit observed in June.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to expand 4.1% and see the trade balance reaching a USD 6.5 billion surplus in 2014. For 2015, the panel expects exports to grow 9.2% and expect the trade surplus to reach USD 9.8 billion.


Author:, Economist

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Indonesia Trade Balance Chart


Indonesia Trade12m July 2014

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-month sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and FocusEconomics calculations.


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