Indonesia: Q1 GDP growth slowest in more than two years
May 6, 2013
In the first quarter, GDP grew 6.0% over the same quarter last year. The figure was a notch down from both the 6.1% increase observed in the fourth quarter and market expectations, which had anticipated GDP expanding at the same Q4's pace.
The Q1 reading reflected a deterioration in domestic demand. Private consumption decelerated from a 5.4% rise in the fourth quarter to a 5.2% expansion in the first. Government consumption, on the other hand, rebounded from a 3.3% contraction in the fourth quarter to a 0.4% expansion in the first. Meanwhile, fixed investment rose 5.9% in the first quarter (Q4 2012: +7.3% year-on-year). Moreover, an increase in inventories had a positive effect on GDP growth.
On the external side, exports rose 3.4% in the first quarter, above the 0.5% increase observed in the fourth quarter. Imports, on the other hand, fell 0.4% in the first quarter, which contrasted the 6.8% expansion seen in the fourth. As exports outpaced imports, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 3.3 points in the fourth quarter to plus 1.5 percentage points in the first.
The Central Bank expects the economy to expand between 6.2% and 6.6% in 2013 and between 6.6% and 7.0% in 2014. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect the economy to expand 6.2% in 2013, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel sees economic growth at 6.3%.