India Trade October 2016


India: Trade deficit widens in October

November 16, 2016

Recently-released data related to India’s external sector showed that the trade deficit totaled USD 10.2 billion in October, which was a larger shortfall than the USD 9.7 billion gap recorded in October 2015 (September 2016: USD 8.3 billion deficit). The rolling 12-month trade deficit widened from USD 93.4 billion in September to USD 93.9 billion in October.

The deterioration in trade data came on the back of a rebound in imports, which more than offset faster exports growth. Imports totaled USD 33.7 billion in October, which represented a 8.1% increase from the same month last year (September 2016: -2.5% year-on-year; October 2015: -21.1% yoy) and marked the highest result since December 2015.

Meanwhile, exports growth picked up steam, rising from September’s 4.6% over the same month last year to 9.6% (October 2015: -17.1% yoy). India’s shipments abroad totaled USD 23.5 billion, which represented the largest amount since March 2015.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect exports to grow 2.2% in FY 2016 to reach USD 267 billion. In FY 2017, the panel sees exports expanding 6.9% to USD 285 billion.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Lead Economist

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India Trade Chart

India Trade12m October 2016

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.

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