India Trade Balance March 2020

India

India: Merchandise exports growth surges in March

April 15, 2021

Merchandise exports increased 58.8% in annual terms in March, on the heels of February’s 1.0% expansion. Meanwhile, merchandise imports rose 54.4% in annual terms in March (February: +8.1% yoy). March’s result was predominately flattered by a low base effect as the pandemic that began around this time last year dented global economic trade. The next several months will likely experience similar exaggerated growth figures.

Meanwhile, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 14.1 billion shortfall in March (February 2021: USD 12.6 billion deficit; March 2020: USD 9.8 billion deficit). Lastly, the trend deteriorated slightly, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 98.7 billion deficit in March, compared to the USD 94.4 billion deficit in February.

In FY 2021, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 3.1% and 9.8%, respectively, bringing the merchandise trade deficit to USD 134 billion. In FY 2022, our panelists forecast that exports and imports will increase 9.8% and 10.6%, respectively, resulting in a merchandise trade deficit of USD 150 billion.


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India Trade Balance Chart


India Trade12m March 2021

Note: 12-month sum of trade balance in USD billion and annual variation of the 12-sum of exports and imports in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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