India: Exports fall in fiscal year 2012/13
April 18, 2013
In March, exports increased 7.0% over the same month last year in USD terms. The figure was above the 4.2% expansion observed in February and represents the third consecutive increase in shipments abroad. Nonetheless, in the full fiscal year 2012/13, exports contracted 1.8%, which contrasts the 21.5% expansion observed in the FY 2011/12 and represents the first decline in overseas sales since FY 2009/10.
Imports dropped 2.9% in March, which contrasted 2.7% expansion registered in February. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed from USD 14.9 billion in February to USD 10.3 billion in March, the lowest shortfall in two years. In the FY 2012/13, trade balance incurred a deficit of USD 191 billion, which was above the USD 183 billion shortfall recorded in the previous fiscal year.
Exports reached USD 300 billion in FY 2012/13, below the government's target of USD 360 billion. As a result, in the Foreign Trade Policy for the fiscal year 2013/14, the government announced a package worth an estimated INR 30 billion (USD 550 million) to stimulate the country's exports.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists anticipate exports to increase 9.8% in the FY 2013/14, to reach USD 330 billion. In FY14/15, the panel sees exports expanding 15.7%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist