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India: Wholesale prices tumble in January

February 16, 2015

Consumer prices in January recorded zero growth over the previous month, which contrasted December’s 0.58% fall (previously reported: -0.41% month-on-month). The monthly result mainly reflected that lower prices for food were offset by higher prices for beverages and tobacco, as well as for clothing and housing. Annual inflation was 5.1% in January, which was notably below the 5.5% that markets had expected. January’s consumer price index reflects a recent revision to the base year and new methodological changes.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in January decreased 0.83% over the previous month, which followed the revised 0.77% fall observed in December (previously reported: -0.94% month-on-month). January’s fall came on the back of a large decrease in fuel prices which stem from the recent sharp fall in global oil prices.

Wholesale prices in January fell 0.4% over the same month of the previous year, which contrasted December’s 0.1% rise and marked the steepest decrease since January 2000. January’s annual print contrasted the 0.2% rise the markets had expected. As a result of the subdued reading, annual average WPI inflation fell from 3.9% in December to 3.4% in January.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 7.0% in FY 2014/2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2015/2016, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 6.3%. Panelists expect wholesale price inflation to average 4.6% in FY 2014/2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2015/2016, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.2%.


Author:, Senior Economist

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India Inflation Chart


India Inflation January 2015

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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