India Inflation

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India: Inflation rises and decline in wholesale prices softens in September

October 14, 2015

Consumer prices in September increased 0.48% over the previous month, which was below August’s 0.97% rise. The monthly result reflected a decrease in prices of fuel and light compared to last month, which was more than offset by rises across all other components of the index. Inflation picked up pace in September, rising from 3.7% in August to 4.4% in September. The result matched market analysts’ expectations.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in September fell 0.06% over the previous month, which followed August’s 0.45% drop. September’s more moderate drop was largely driven by a softer fall in prices for fuel and power as well as a rise in prices of manufactured articles. On an annual basis, wholesale prices fell 4.5% in September, which was a softer decline than August’s 5.0% decrease. August’s result had marked the largest decline on record. Annual average WPI inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling from minus 1.5% in August to minus 2.1% in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.3% in FY 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.6%. Panelists expect wholesale prices to fall 0.5% in FY 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.4%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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India Inflation Chart


India Inflation September 2015

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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