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India: Inflation rises and decline in wholesale prices softens in October

November 16, 2015

Consumer prices in October increased 0.56% over the previous month, which was above September’s 0.48% rise. The monthly result partly reflected an increase in prices of food and beverages as well as an increase in housing prices. Inflation picked up pace in October, rising from 4.4% in September to 5.0%, thus hitting a four-month high. The result was above market analysts’ expectations of a reading of 4.8%.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in October rose 0.06% over the previous month, which mirrored September’s figure. October’s reading reflected broadly stable prices for primary and manufactured articles. On an annual basis, wholesale prices fell 3.8% in October, which was a softer decline than September’s 4.5% decrease. However, annual average WPI inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling from minus 2.1% in September to minus 2.5% in October.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.1% in FY 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.5%. Panelists expect wholesale prices to fall 1.8% in FY 2015, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 3.5%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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India Inflation Chart


India Inflation October 2015

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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