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India: Inflation hits over-one-year high; decline in wholesale prices softens in November

December 15, 2015

Consumer prices in November increased 0.40% over the previous month, which was below October’s 0.56% rise. The monthly result partly reflected an increase in prices of food and beverages, which have risen in recent months amid a backdrop of a weak monsoon. Inflation picked up pace in November, rising from 5.0% in October to 5.4%, thus hitting an over-one-year high. The result was in line with market analysts’ expectations.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in November rose 0.51% over the previous month, which was above October’s 0.11% increase. November’s reading reflected rising prices for primary and fuel and power products. On an annual basis, wholesale prices fell 2.0% in November, which was a softer decline than October’s 3.8% decrease. However, annual average WPI inflation continued its downward trajectory, falling from minus 2.5% in October to minus 2.7% in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.0% in FY 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.4%.Panelists expect wholesale prices to fall 2.3% in FY 2015, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 1.9%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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India Inflation November 2015 0

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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