India Inflation

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India: Inflation falls in April and wholesale prices continue annual decline

May 14, 2015

Consumer prices in April increased 0.42% over the previous month, which mirrored March’s print. The monthly result mainly reflected slight increases in the prices of tobacco and intoxicants as well as of clothing and footwear. Inflation fell from 5.3% in March to 4.9% in April, which marked a five-month low. The result was in-line with market expectations.

The wholesale price index (WPI) in April fell 0.06% over the previous month, which contrasted the revised 0.28% rise observed in March (previously reported: +0.17% month-on-month). April’s decrease came on the back of a fall in fuel prices and manufactured products. In contrast, prices for primary articles increased compared to the previous month.

Wholesale prices in April fell 2.7% over the same month last year, which followed March’s 2.3% decrease. As a result, annual average WPI inflation fell from 2.0% in March to 1.3% in April, which marked a multi-year low.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 5.5% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 5.6%. Panelists expect wholesale price inflation to average 1.5% in FY 2015/2016, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2016/2017, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.2%.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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India Inflation Chart


India Inflation April 2015

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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