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India: Inflation continues to fall in November, whole sale price inflation hits multi-year low

December 15, 2014

In November, consumer prices rose 0.21% over the previous month, which came in above the 0.14% increase observed in October. Annual inflation fell from 5.5% in October to 4.4% in November. The reading fell short the 4.5% rise the markets had expected and represented the lowest level since records began in January 2012.

Meanwhile, the wholesale price index (WPI) fell 1.31% in November over the previous month, which followed the 0.59% fall observed in October. November’s result reflected lower prices for food, particularly for fresh food, as well as for fuels. The decrease in fuel prices was the result of the recent sharp fall in global oil prices.

As a result of the monthly drop, wholesale prices were unchanged in November compared to the same month last year. The reading, which came in below both the 1.8% year-on-year increase registered in October and the 1.0% rise the markets had expected, represented the lowest level in five and a half years. As a result, annual average WPI inflation fell from 5.0% in October to 4.4% in November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 7.1% in FY 2014/2015, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2015/2016, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 6.3%, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection. Panelists expect wholesale price inflation to average 4.6% in FY 2014/2015, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2015/2016, the panel expects wholesale price inflation to average 4.5%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s Consensus.


Author:, Senior Economist

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India Inflation November 2014 2

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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