India GDP

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India: GDP growth stable in Q4 2013/2014

May 30, 2014

GDP expanded 4.6% over the same period last year in the January–March period (the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2013/2014). The result mirrored the expansion recorded in the third quarter, although it was a tad below the 4.7% increase the markets had expected. Consequently, the economy expanded 4.7% in FY 2013/14, which was slightly up from the 4.5% rise tallied in FY 2012/13.

The quarterly print reflected that, despite some sectors registering decelerations, the increases tallied in others helped the economy to sustain economic growth. The contraction in the all-important manufacturing sector eased somewhat from the 1.5% drop tallied in Q3 2013/2014 to a 1.4% contraction in Q4 2013/2014. In addition, mining and quarrying decreased 0.5% in the January–March period, which was up from the 1.2% contraction registered in the previous quarter. Conversely, a good harvesting season reflected that agriculture expanded 6.3% in Q4 2013/2014, which was faster than in the prior quarter (Q3 2013/2014: +3.7% year-on-year) and marked the strongest expansion since Q1 2011/12. Meanwhile, construction inched up from the lackluster 0.6% rise tallied in Q3 to a 0.7% expansion. Financial services, however, decelerated slightly to a 12.4% expansion (Q3 2013/14: +14.1% yoy). Social services also decelerated, expanding 3.3% in Q4 (Q3 2013/14: +5.7% yoy), which marked the slowest rise since Q1 2013.

The government expects growth of 4.9% in FY 2013/2014. For FY 2014/15, the government sees GDP growth around 5.0%. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India Bank expects growth to increase to between 5.0% and 6.0% in fiscal year 2014/2015. Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect GDP to grow 5.3% in fiscal year 2014/2015, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2015/2016, the panel sees economic growth at 5.9%.


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India GDP Sector Q1 2014 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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