Hungary GDP

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Hungary: Pace of GDP growth inches up in Q4 on improving external sector

March 6, 2015

In the fourth quarter of 2014, GDP expanded 3.4% over the same period of the previous year, according to more detailed data released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on 6 March, meeting the growth estimate from the preliminary release. The print came in marginally above the 3.3% expansion recorded in the third quarter, which had marked the slowest expansion since Q4 2013.

In the full year 2014, GDP grew 3.6%, which was up from the 1.5% expansion recorded in 2013.

The slight improvement in the fourth quarter was mainly driven by a better performance of the external sector and also by rising consumption. Total consumption picked up from Q3’s 1.4% increase to a 2.5% expansion in Q4. Private consumption accelerated from the 1.1% growth recorded in Q3 to a 2.0% expansion in Q4, while government consumption sped up from Q3’s 2.9% growth to a 5.4% increase. Fixed investment slowed markedly from Q3’s 13.2% expansion to a weaker 1.9% in Q4.

On the external side of the economy, exports rose 9.4% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +7.9% year-on-ear), while imports decelerated from Q3’s 11.0% expansion to 9.4% growth in Q4. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth rebounded from minus 3.2 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.1 percentage points in Q4.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.8%, which marked an acceleration over the 0.4% expansion recorded in Q3.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.3% in 2015 and 2.1% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect a 2.5% expansion in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects growth to expand 2.4%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Hungary GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of working-day adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Hungarian Central Statistics Office and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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