Hungary GDP

Hungary

Hungary: GDP expands at fastest rate in over seven years in Q1

June 4, 2014

In the first quarter of 2014, GDP expanded 3.5% over the same period of last year according to more detailed data released by the Central Statistics Office (KSH) on 4 June. The figure met the growth estimate from the preliminary release and overshot the 2.7% expansion recorded in the fourth quarter. In addition, the figure marks the fastest expansion since Q4 2006.

The improvement in the first quarter was driven by an acceleration in all categories of domestic demand. Total consumption improved from Q4’s 1.0% increase to a 1.9% expansion. Private consumption rose from the 0.7% growth recorded in Q4 to a 1.6% expansion and government consumption accelerated from 2.9% growth in Q4 to a 3.5% increase. Fixed investment increased a strong 13.3% (Q4: +10.5% year-on-year).

On the external side of the economy, exports rose 7.5% in the first quarter (Q4: +8.9% yoy) and imports expanded 7.6%, matching Q4’s print. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth swung from 1.3 percentage points in Q4 to minus 0.1 percentage points in Q1.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 1.1%, which marked an improvement over the 0.7% expansion recorded in Q4.

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 2.1% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect a 2.3% expansion in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects growth to decelerate to 2.1%.


Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Hungary GDP Chart


Hungary GDP Q1 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of working-day adjusted GDP in %.
Source: Hungarian Central Statistics Office and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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