Hungary Economic Sentiment


Hungary: Rising consumer confidence drives economic sentiment to highest level this year

October 25, 2015

A notable increase in consumer confidence in October more than compensated for falling business sentiment and drove economic sentiment up for the third straight month. The GKI-Erste economic sentiment advanced slightly from September’s minus 1.8 points to minus 0.8 points in October, which marked the highest reading so far this year.

Consumer sentiment more than reversed the previous month’s loss and jumped to the highest reading in nearly one year, rising from minus 28.3 points in September to minus 19.6 points in October. According to GKI, “both the assessment of consumers’ own financial position and the prospects of their saving capacity turned better for the next 12 months compared to September. Households considered the possibility of purchasing high-value durables somewhat better as well.”

Conversely, business sentiment fell from September´s 7.5 points to 5.8 points in October. According to GKI, the result reflects declining sentiment in all sectors except for trade. While construction and services recorded the largest drops, the decline in sentiment among the industrial sector was small. Conversely, the trade confidence index rose to its highest value this year. GKI-Erste added that expectations on the general conditions of the Hungarian economy, “in industry and construction deteriorated significantly, it dropped slightly in trade, whereas it improved in services and especially among households.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect total consumption to expand 2.8% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects total consumption to grow 2.5%, which is also unchanged from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 1.3% in 2015, which is down 0.8 percentage points over last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees investment expanding 0.6%, which is also unchanged from last month’s Consensus.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Hungary Economic Sentiment Chart

Hungary Economic Sentiment October 2015

Note: Consumer confidence, business confidence and economic sentiment indicators.
Source: GKI Economic Research Co.

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