Hungary Economic Sentiment


Hungary: Economic sentiment recedes from six-month high in November on the back of falling consumer confidence

November 23, 2014

In November, the GKI-Erste economic sentiment index swung from October’s plus 1.2 points, which had marked the highest reading in half a year, to minus 0.7 points. November’s print marked a deterioration after two consecutive months with rising sentiment.

Consumer sentiment fell from minus 17.6 points in October to minus 19.4 points in November, marking a three-month low. According to GKI, “[h]ouseholds assessed their financial situation and their savings capacity for the following year, as well as the possibility of purchasing high-value durables worse than in October.”

Business sentiment remained virtually unchanged, as it moderated only marginally from 7.8 points in October, which had represented the highest reading since 1998, to 7.7 points in November. According to GKI, the result reflects that falling expectations in the construction and services sectors more than offset improving expectations in the commercial sector. The industrial confidence index was virtually unchanged over the previous month.

FocusEconomics panelists expect total consumption to expand 1.9% in 2014, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2015, the panel expects total consumption to grow 2.2%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 10.8% in 2014, which is up 0.6 percentage points over last month’s estimate. In 2015, the panel sees investment expanding 2.6%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Hungary Economic Sentiment Chart

Hungary Economic Sentiment November 2014

Note: Consumer confidence, business confidence and economic sentiment indicators.
Source: GKI Economic Research Co.

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