Hungary Economic Sentiment


Hungary: Economic sentiment inches down in February

February 20, 2015

In February, the GKI-Erste economic sentiment index inched down from January’s minus 2.9 points to minus 3.2 points, representing a fourth consecutive decline and the lowest reading in six months.

Consumer sentiment advanced from minus 23.8 points in January, which had represented the lowest value since October 2013, to minus 22.4 in February. According to GKI, the print reflects that, “[t]he assessment of consumers’ own financial position turned slightly better, the prospects of their saving capacity much better for the next 12 months compared with the previous ones. Households considered the possibility of purchasing high-value durables stagnating.”

Conversely, business sentiment declined from 4.4 points in January to 3.5 points in February. According to GKI, the result reflects that expectations moderated in the construction and services sectors, whereas minimal improvements were tallied in the industrial and trade sectors. Regarding the expectations on the general economy, GKI-Erste added that, “with the exception of the service sector, those expecting worsening were in slight majority. The opinion of households on this issue was only slightly more optimistic.”

FocusEconomics panelists expect total consumption to expand 2.5% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2016, the panel expects total consumption to grow 2.2%. Panelists expect fixed investment to increase 3.1% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s estimate. In 2016, the panel sees investment expanding 2.3%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Hungary Economic Sentiment Chart

Hungary Economic Sentiment February 2015

Note: Consumer confidence, business confidence and economic sentiment indicators.
Source: GKI Economic Research Co.

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