Hong Kong GDP Q4 2015

Hong Kong

Hong Kong: GDP slows in Q4 as domestic demand contracts

February 24, 2016

In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded 1.9% over the same quarter of the previous year, which was below the 2.3% increase tallied in Q3 and marked the softest rise since Q3 2012. The print was in line with market expectations.

The slowdown in Q4 mainly reflected a contraction in domestic demand, which more than offset improvement in the external sector. Private consumption grew 3.2% in Q4, which was below the 4.3% tallied in Q3. Fixed investment fell a sharp 9.7% in Q4 (Q3: -6.4% year-on-year). However, government consumption accelerated from Q3’s 2.8% expansion to 3.5% growth in Q4.

On the external front, exports of goods and services fell 0.9% in Q4, which was above the 2.7% drop tallied in Q3. Imports contracted at a softer rate as well, recording a 1.8% fall in Q4 (Q3: -3.2% year-on-year). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth rose from 1.0 percentage point in Q3 to 2.0 percentage points in Q4, which marked the strongest reading since Q1 2011.

A quarter-on-quarter comparison confirms the deceleration suggested by the annual data; the economy rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.2% in Q4, which was below Q3’s 0.6% increase and marked the softest reading in a year and a half.

The government expects the economy to grow between 1.0% and 2.0% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP expanding 2.3% in 2016, which is unchanged from the previous month’s estimate. For 2017, the panel also expects the economy to increase 2.3%.


Author:, Economist

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Hong Kong GDP Q4 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Census and Statistics Department Hong Kong and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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