Guatemala: GDP slows in 2012
February 28, 2013
According to preliminary estimates from the Central Bank, GDP expanded 3.0% in the full year 2012. The figure was down from the 4.2% increase registered in 2011 but broadly in line with last month's FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast projections that had the economy expanding 3.1%.
The slowdown seen in 2012 was mainly due to a deteriorating domestic demand (2011: +4.7% year-on-year; 2012: +3.4% yoy), whereas the contribution from the external sector improved. Total consumption slowed from a 4.2% expansion in 2011 to a 3.1% increase in 2012, while gross fixed investment grew only 2.4%, after having added 5.4% in 2011.
Exports of goods and services moderated from a 5.3% increase in 2011 to a 1.6% rise in 2012. On the other hand, import growth fell from 6.8% in 2011 to 3.4%. As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth improved from minus 1.1 percentage points in 2011 to minus 0.8 percentage points in 2012.
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.5% and 3.9% in 2013. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.3% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For next year, panellists expect the economy to expand 3.4%.