Guatemala GDP Q4 2015


Guatemala: GDP growth slows slightly in 2015

March 9, 2016

According to a preliminary estimate from the Central Bank, GDP expanded 4.1% in the full year 2015. The figure came in below the 4.3% rise tallied in 2014. The moderate deceleration seen in 2015 mainly resulted from a contraction in public spending and a poorer performance of the external sector. Conversely, private consumption and fixed investment improved.

Total consumption growth rose from 2014’s 4.1% to 4.3% in 2015. This improvement was driven by household spending, which advanced from a 4.1% rise in 2014 to a seven-year high of 4.3% in 2015. By contract, public spending deteriorated, swinging from 2014’s 5.9% expansion to a 1.2% contraction in 2015. In fact, this marked the first decrease in over a decade. Meanwhile, fixed investment growth accelerated from 4.3% in 2014 to 5.7% last year.

Exports of goods and services decelerated from a 7.6% rise in 2014 to a 5.6% increase in 2015. By contrast, imports gained momentum last year, expanding 7.9% (2014: +6.0% year-on-year).

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.4% in 2016, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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