Guatemala GDP

Guatemala

Guatemala: Economy sees sharp deceleration in Q2

October 9, 2015

In Q2 2015, the economy expanded 3.5% over the same period of the previous year, marking the lowest figure in five quarters. The expansion marked a sharp slowdown compared to the 4.8% increase tallied in Q1 2015. The deceleration was mainly due to a deterioration in the external sector’s contribution.

Government consumption fell by 2.0%, contrasting Q1’s 6.9% expansion, marking the lowest reading since December 2004. Private consumption improved, climbing 5.6% (Q1: +5.0% year-on-year), the highest reading since March 2008. Meanwhile, fixed investment performed substantially better, increasing 7.2% compared to last quarter’s increase of 3.6%.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services in Q2 were in line with Q1’s reading of a 3.5% expansion. Imports accelerated from a 4.1% increase in Q1 to a 7.1% rise in Q2. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth deteriorated from minus 0.7 percentage points in Q1 to minus 1.8 percentage points in Q2.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.8% and 3.9% in 2015. Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.9% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016 panelists expect the economy to expand 3.7%.


Author:, Economist

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Guatemala GDP Q215 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast


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