Guatemala GDP


Guatemala: Economy accelerates in Q3

January 14, 2015

In the third quarter of 2014, the economy expanded 4.7% over the same period of the previous year. The expansion marked an improvement compared to the 4.4% increase tallied in the second quarter and the is largest expansion since Q2 2013.

The acceleration in Q3 came on the back of an improvement in the external sector compared to the previous quarter, whereas domestic demand remained unchanged. Private consumption ticked down from Q2’s 4.4% increase to a 3.4% rise in Q3, while fixed investment also preformed worse in the third quarter, expanding a meager 0.6% (Q2: +3.1% year-on-year). However, government consumption increased by 5.0%, which was above Q2’s 4.0% rise.

On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services grew 8.2%, which was markedly higher than Q2’s 5.9% expansion. In addition, imports accelerated to a 4.6% expansion (Q2: +4.1% year-on-year). As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall growth rose to plus 0.3 percentage points in Q3 from no contribution in Q2.

The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.5% and 4.1% in 2015. Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.4% in 2015, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2016, panelists expect the economy to expand 3.5%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Guatemala GDP Chart

Guatemala GDP Q314

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Guatemala Central Bank and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast

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