Guatemala: Economic growth slows markedly in Q3
January 9, 2014
In Q3 2013, GDP expanded 3.6% over the same period of the previous year. The print was well below the 4.3% rise observed in Q2, which had marked the strongest expansion since Q3 2011.
The deterioration in Q3 reflects a slowdown in the external sector, whereas domestic demand improved slightly over the previous quarter. Total consumption lost ground in Q3 (Q2: +4.9% year-on-year; Q3: +3.6% yoy) on the back of moderating private consumption (Q2: +3.8% yoy; Q3: +3.4% yoy) and an abrupt slowdown in public spending (Q2: +13.5% yoy; Q3: +5.6% yoy). Fixed investment, however, improved markedly compared to the previous quarter, rebounding to a 9.2% expansion (Q2: -1.3% yoy).
On the external side of the economy, exports of goods and services rose 4.7% over the same period of the previous year (Q2: +7.3% yoy), while imports expanded 5.8% (Q2: +6.1% yoy). As a result, the external sector's net contribution to overall growth fell from minus 0.4 percentage points in Q2 to minus 0.9 percentage points in Q3.
The Central Bank expects the economy to grow between 3.3% and 3.9% in 2014. Consensus Forecast participants see GDP growing 3.6% in 2014, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect the economy to expand also 3.6%.