Guatemala: Economic activity slows in September
November 10, 2010
In September, economic activity added 2.8% over the same period last year, according to the monthly indicator for economic activity (IMAE, indice Mensual de la Actividad Economica). The increase was below the revised 5.1% expansion reported in August (previously reported: +5.0% year-on-year). However, a month-on-month assessment does not confirm the deceleration suggested by the annual figures, as economic activity rose 0.24% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, which was virtually unchanged compared to the 0.25% increase tallied in August. Meanwhile, based on monthly data, economic activity expanded an annual 3.2% in the third quarter, which was below the 3.6% increase observed in the second quarter. As a result of the weak annual reading, the trend remained flat, with annual average growth in economic activity remaining at the 2.8% recorded in August. Despite the dismal performance, the Central Bank revised its GDP growth forecast and now sees the economy expanding between 2.0% and 2.8% this year, up from its previous 1.7% - 2.0% estimate.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist