Guatemala: Economic activity expands at fastest pace in more than two years
October 10, 2011
In August, economic activity jumped 5.0% over the same month last year, according to the monthly indicator for the economic activity (IMAE, indice Mensual de la Actividad Economica). The expansion came in well above the revised 1.6% increase reported in July (previously reported: +1.3% year-on-year) and marked, in fact, the fastest expansion since April 2008. A month-on-month comparison however, does not corroborate the acceleration suggested by annual figures, as economic activity rose only 0.26% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, which came in a notch below the 0.28% increase registered in July. As a result of the strong August expansion, the trend points upwards again, with annual average growth in economic activity rising from 2.6% in July to 2.8% in August. Despite the natural disasters that hit the country in recent months, the Central Bank revised its GDP growth forecast and now sees the economy expanding between 2.0% and 2.8% this year, up from its previous 1.7% - 2.0% estimate.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist