Greece GDP Q1 2017


Greece: Revised data shows economy grew in Q1

June 2, 2017

A complete dataset released on 2 June by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) revealed that the economy performed much better than previously expected at the start of 2017. GDP increased 0.8% over the same period of 2016, a significant upward revision from the flash estimate of a 0.3% contraction. The improvement was driven by stronger than expected private consumption and investment despite a backdrop of austerity measures and political uncertainty. Moreover, the result illustrates that a shaky economic recovery remains underway.

Household spending gained steam in Q1, rising form a 1.2% increase in Q4 2016 to a 1.6% expansion. Although the unemployment rate is notably above the Eurozone average, gains in the labor market have materialized and are slowly boosting economic data. Fixed investment surged 12.8% in Q1, after nosediving 13.5% in the previous quarter. Investment figures have been volatile in the past quarters, largely influenced by the uncertain atmosphere and overall tight financial conditions. Meanwhile, government consumption swung to expansion and rose 1.0%.

The improvement in the domestic economy caused a rise in imports, which soared 19.0% (Q4: -3.3 year-on-year). Export growth inched up from 4.3% in Q4 2016 to 4.4% in Q1. A stabilization in oil prices has helped shore up exports of refined oil products and the country is benefiting from strong tourism earnings.

On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 0.5% in Q1 in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 1.1% contraction in the fourth quarter. The healthier reading suggests that the economy is slowly embarking on a recovery path, although the overall state is still challenging despite numerous reforms and bailouts.

Greece’s outlook is bleak. While the country is seen growing a better 1.0% this year, the pace of recovery is meagre given the size of the economic crisis. In 2018, the FocusEconomics panel sees GDP expanding 1.9%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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