Greece GDP

Greece

Greece: Greece's economy surprises on the upside, records modest contraction in Q3

November 13, 2015

Despite a backdrop of capital controls, “Grexit” fears and tense bailout negotiations, Greece’s economy recorded only a modest contraction in the third quarter of 2015. The economy contracted 0.1% over the same period last year, according to an advance estimate released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) on 14 November. The result still marks a downturn for the economy, which expanded 1.3% in Q2 and the figure is the worst result since Q4 2013.

On a quarterly basis, the economy fell 0.5% in Q3 2015 in seasonally-adjusted terms, which contrasted the 0.4% rise in the second quarter. While the result marked the worst performance in 10 quarters, the figure was significantly better than the 2.7% contraction expected by market analysts. The third quarter’s moderate fall is surprising, since capital controls were imposed at the end of June that restricted cash access for Greeks. The statistical institute will release more detailed data on 27 November.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy falling 1.2% in 2015, which is up 0.2 percentage points over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects GDP to decline 1.3%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Greece GDP Chart


Greece GDP Q3 2015

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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