Greece GDP


Greece: Economy grows less than expected in fourth quarter

January 27, 2015

In the fourth quarter, the economy expanded 1.2% over the same period of the previous year, according to more detailed data released by the Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) on 27 February. Q4’s reading marked a deceleration from the 2.0% increase tallied in Q3 and came in below the flash estimate of a 1.5% expansion. Q4’s slowdown came on the back of a deterioration in the external sector.

On the domestic side of the economy, growth in private consumption slowed from the 3.3% increase in Q3 to a 1.7% expansion in Q4. Government consumption improved slightly contracting 2.6% in Q4, which was above the 3.6% contraction in Q3. Fixed investment accelerated 29.3% in Q4, which notably contrasted Q3’s 21.2% decline and marked an almost 9-year high.

Exports of goods and services rose 10.8% in the fourth quarter (Q3: +6.9% year-on-year), while imports increased 17.3% in Q4 (Q3: +3.0% yoy). Since imports outpaced exports, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth swung from plus 1.6 percentage points in the third quarter to minus 2.7 percentage points in the third quarter.

The economy fell 0.4% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q4, which contrasted the 0.7% expansion tallied in Q3.

The government expects the economy to grow 2.9% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 2.0% in 2015, which is up 0.1 percentage points over last month’s forecast. For 2016, the panel expects growth of 2.5%.

Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Greece GDP Chart

Greece GDP Q4 2014

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %
Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (EL.STAT) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.

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