Germany: Inflation inches down in September
October 11, 2013
In September, consumer prices remained unchanged over the previous month, confirming the preliminary estimate released by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis) on 27 September. The reading followed August's flat figure and came in slightly below market expectations of a 0.1% rise. According to Destatis, the subdued print reflected how lower prices for package holidays as well as for air tickets compensated for higher prices for clothing and footwear as well as for heating oil.
Annual headline inflation inched down from 1.5% in August to 1.4% in September, the lowest rate since April. In September, annual average inflation remained unchanged at August's 1.7%.
Meanwhile, September's annual HICP inflation (based on the harmonized index of consumer prices) stabilized at the 1.6% observed in August. Annual average HICP inflation remained stable at 1.8% in September.
The German Central Bank expects inflation to average 1.6% in 2013, before inching down to 1.5% in 2014. FocusEconomics panelists expect inflation to average 1.6% in 2013, which is unchanged from the previous month's forecast. For 2014, panelists expect inflation to increase to 1.8%, which is also unchanged from last month's estimate.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist