Germany: Industrial production shows soft growth in November
January 9, 2013
In November, industrial production expanded 0.2% over the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, which contrasted the 2.0% contraction recorded in October. The print, however, came in well below market expectations, which had industrial production increasing a stronger 1.0%. A rebound in manufacturing output as well as in mining activity was the main driver behind the monthly increase.
Compared to the same month the year before, industrial production declined a working-day adjusted 2.9% in November, which followed the revised 3.0% contraction tallied in October (previously reported: -3.7% year-on-year). As a result, the trend continues to point downwards, with annual average growth in industrial output falling from 0.0% in October to minus 0.6% in November, dropping into the red for the first time since June 2010.
The Bundesbank cut significantly its growth projections for 2013 and now expects the economy to grow 0.4%, well below its previous 1.6% estimate. For 2014, the Bank sees the economy rebounding, with economic growth of 1.9%. Meanwhile, the government sees economic growth at 1.0% in 2013.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist