Germany: Industrial output declines more than expected in September
November 7, 2013
In September, industrial production contracted 0.9% over the previous month in seasonally-adjusted terms. The reading contrasted the revised 1.6% expansion registered in August (previously reported: +1.4% month-on-month) and exceeded the 0.2% decline the market had expected. The contraction was the result of lower manufacturing production, a sharp deterioration in mining activity and a faster decline in construction. Conversely, electricity and energy supply rebounded over the previous month.
Compared to the same month last year, industrial production rose 1.0% in September, which was the highest increase in 18 months. The result came in above the revised 0.9% expansion recorded in August (previously reported: +0.3% year-on-year). As a result of the strong annual figure, the trend continues to point upward, with the annual average variation in industrial production rising from minus 1.3% in August to minus 1.2% in September.
Forecasters polled by FocusEconomics expect that industrial production will contract 0.3% this year, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2014, the panel sees industrial production rebounding to a 2.5% expansion, which is unchanged from last month's projection.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist