Germany: Consumer optimism inches up in October
September 25, 2013
The GfK forward-looking consumer confidence indicator inched up to 7.1 points in October, slightly higher than the revised 7.0 points recorded in September (previously reported: 6.9 points). Due to the October increase, the trend continued the upward trajectory that began in March (with a brief leveling-off in ). The index now sits at its highest point since September 2007. The reading was broadly in line with market expectations.
While the overall consumer confidence indicator refers to October, the GfK also provides three sub-indicators referring to September. According to the GfK, consumers' economic expectations improved notably over the previous month. Conversely, consumers' income expectations declined for a second month, mainly due to their perception that prices are rising, particularly food prices. Despite the drop in income expectations, consumers' willingness to buy major items increased in September. The GfK added that, "saving money will therefore not be particularly appealing anytime soon either."
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 1.1% this year, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2014, panelists see private consumption growing 1.3%, which is unchanged from last month's forecasts.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist