Germany: Consumer optimism inches down in November
October 31, 2013
The GfK forward-looking consumer confidence indicator inched down to 7.0 points in November, slightly lower than the 7.1 points recorded in October. The November slip, which halted the upward trajectory that began in March, disappointed market analysts as they had expected the index to rise further to 7.2 points.
While the overall consumer confidence indicator refers to November, the GfK also provides three sub-indicators referring to October. According to the GfK, consumers' economic expectations continued to rise in October following a notable improvement in September. Conversely, consumers' income expectations declined for a third consecutive month, mainly due to households' perception that prices are rising. Against this backdrop, consumers' willingness to buy major items declined slightly in October. Despite the decline, the GfK added that, "the buying mood among Germans consumers is unbroken."
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 1.0% this year, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month's estimate. For 2014, panelists see private consumption growing 1.3%, which is unchanged from last month's forecast.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist