Germany Consumer Confidence


Germany: Consumer confidence moderates in September, but remains high

August 21, 2015

In September, the mood among German consumers recorded a slight moderation. After having climbed to an over-13-year high in June, confidence receded slightly in July and stabilized in August. The forward-looking consumer confidence indicator published by the GfK inched down from August’s 10.1 points to 9.9 points for September, contrasting the 10.1 points that markets had expected. According to GfK, “despite the decline, it cannot be said that the economic motor will stutter or even stall. As before, the indicator level is high, suggesting that private consumption can fulfill its ascribed role as an important pillar of economic development this year. Since it can be assumed that conditions for a good consumer economy in Germany will remain favorable in the coming months, such as employment, income and inflation, there is a good chance that the consumer climate will stabilize again.”

In addition to the overall consumer confidence indicator, which estimates consumer sentiment in the coming month, the GfK elaborates on three sub-indicators, which refer to the previous month. In August, households’ expectations for the overall economy worsened for a third consecutive month. Nevertheless, GfK pointed out that, despite this moderation, consumers still expect the economy to expand this year. After households’ income expectations had reached another post-reunification peak in July, the income expectations indicator decreased in August, but nonetheless stayed at a very high level. Consumers’ willingness to buy also recorded a setback in August, but still somewhat exceeded its previous year’s reading.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect private consumption to expand 2.2% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2016, panelists see private consumption growing 1.6%.

Author: Teresa Kersting, Economist

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Germany Consumer Confidence Chart

Germany Consumer Confidence September 2015

Note: GfK Consumer Climate Index.
Source: The GfK Group.

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