Germany: Consumer confidence edges down from six-year high
August 28, 2013
The GfK forward-looking consumer confidence indicator edged down to 6.9 points in September, after reaching a six-year high in August (7.0 points). The September drop puts a halt on the upward trend in place since March and also contrasted market expectations that had the index rising further to 7.1 points.
While the overall consumer confidence index refers to September, GfK also publishes three sub-indicators that refer to August. According to GfK, households' economic expectations and income prospects deteriorated compared to the previous month. Consumers are less optimistic that the German economy will maintain the second quarter's momentum, thus they expect economic growth to be more moderate in the coming months. Despite lower economic and income prospects, consumers' willingness to purchase major items improved markedly over the previous month. GfK noted that, "in light of extremely low interest rate levels and the recent slight rise in the rate of inflation, the appeal for consumers to invest their money in major purchases has increased further still."
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panellists expect private consumption to expand 0.8% this year, which is unchanged from last month's estimate. For 2014, panellists see private consumption growing 1.1%.
Author: Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist