France: Preliminary estimate shows GDP expansion in Q4
February 14, 2014
GDP expanded 0.3% over the previous quarter in Q4 according to preliminary data released by the Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 14 February. The print followed the flat reading tallied in Q3 and overshot the 0.2% rise that markets had expected. Revised data will be released on 28 March.
The Q4 expansion was driven by improvements in both domestic and external demand. Domestic demand expanded 0.5% quarter-on-quarter (Q3: +0.0% qoq). Private consumption increased 0.5% in seasonally-adjusted terms (Q3: +0.1% qoq) and marked the highest reading in nearly two years. Public consumption increased 0.4% (Q3: +0.2% qoq). In addition, fixed investment increased 0.6% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms (Q3: -0.3% qoq).
On the external side of the economy, exports expanded 1.2% in Q4 (Q3: -1.6% qoq), while imports expanded 0.5% (Q3: +0.8% qoq), which drove the external sector's net contribution to GDP growth from minus 0.7 percentage points in Q3 to plus 0.2 percentage points.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 0.8% this year, which is unchanged from last month's forecast. For 2015, panelists expect that economic growth will edge up to 1.3%.