France GDP Q2 2017

France

France: Economic growth remains steady in Q2

September 22, 2017

The French economy continues to perform well, as confirmed by the third estimate of economic growth in Q2 released by the Statistical Institute (INSEE) on 22 September. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 0.5%. Annually, the economy jumped from a 1.1% expansion in Q1 to 1.7% in Q2, an almost six-year high. The quarterly print was in line with the preliminary estimate and the FocusEconomics forecast, and it marks the third consecutive 0.5% expansion. It also indicates an end to the recent volatility in quarter-on-quarter growth, where periods of growth were frequently followed by sharp decelerations. Q2’s increase was driven by the external sector’s strong performance and healthy growth on the domestic side. The second quarter print means that the economy is on track to hit the annual target growth of 1.6% set by the government in early July.

The external sector rebounded notably on the back of higher exports and weaker growth in imports. Exports went from a 0.8% decline in Q1 to a softer-than-expected 2.4% increase in Q2 (previously reported: +3.1% quarter-on-quarter). The increase in exports was driven by stronger demand from overseas markets for transport equipment and refined petroleum products. Imports expansion slowed to a revised 0.3% due to a decline in purchases of refined petroleum and other industrial materials (previously reported: +0.4% qoq). Overall, the external sector contributed 0.6 percentage points to growth in the second quarter, contrasting the 0.6-percentage-point deduction observed in the preceding quarter.

Compared to the external sector, the domestic economy had a slightly more muted performance in the second quarter. Private consumption, which constitutes over 50% of the French economy, expanded a soft 0.3%. Although the reading marked a slight acceleration from Q1’s 0.1% increase, private consumption growth was dented by a sharp slowdown in services, particularly in restaurant and accommodation services, as the tourism sector continues to reel from the impact of last year’s terrorist attacks. Fixed investment decelerated from a 1.3% expansion in the first quarter to 0.7% in the second quarter (previously reported: +0.7% qoq). The decline largely reflects a base effect as a tax deduction scheme on investment expired in April. Finally, government consumption accelerated from 0.0% to 0.3%.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to grow 1.6% in 2017, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month's forecast. For 2018, panelists also forecast 1.6% growth, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.


Author: Jean-Philippe Pourcelot, Economist

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France GDP Q2 2017 1

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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