Finland: Economy shows signs of weakening in November
January 10, 2011
In October, economic activity grew a working-day adjusted 5.5% over the same month the previous year based on the Trend Indicator of Output. The print represented the fastest pace of expansion since February 2008 and, although favoured by a low base of comparison (October 2009: -8.0% year-on-year), undoubtedly points to a strong rebound. A month-on-month comparison corroborates this notion, as output expanded a robust 1.5% in seasonally adjusted terms over the previous month (September: +0.5% mom). All three main sectors accelerated in October, the most notable improvement coming from the primary sector, which expanded a robust 12.9% (September: +1.4% yoy). In addition, the industrial sector also increased a robust 11.0% (September: +7.1% year-on-year), while the services sector expanded 3.3% (September: +2.8% yoy). More recent data from the industrial sector suggest that growth may have softened in November, as industrial production slowed to a 6.2% annual expansion (October: +10.8% yoy). The deceleration was mostly due to a weaker result in the manufacturing sector, which decelerated from an 11.4% expansion in October to a 5.2% increase. Moreover, strong growth in the mining and quarrying sector moderated to a 22.4% expansion (October: +31.0% yoy). Meanwhile, the Bank of Finland anticipates that the overall economy will grow 3.0% in 2011 and 2.5% in 2012.