Finland: Economic growth slows to 10-month low in October
December 15, 2017
In October, economic activity grew a working-day adjusted 2.6% over the previous year, down from September’s revised 3.4% increase (previously reported: +3.8% year-on-year). This is according to the latest monthly Trend Indicator of Output released by Statistics Finland on 15 December.
The year-on-year deceleration in October resulted from slower growth in services production, the most significant form of production in Finland, which fell to 1.7% from 3.7% in September. Primary production—which includes agriculture, hunting, forestry, and fishing activity—grew 1.6% (September: +2.0% year-on-year), while secondary production—which includes manufacturing and construction activity—expanded 4.8% (September: +3.0% yoy).
A month-on-month comparison shows that economic activity contracted 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in October, contrasting September’s revised 0.6% growth (previously reported: +0.5% month-on-month). Annual average growth in economic activity was 3.3%, unchanged from September.
According to preliminary data released on 1 December by the Statistical Institute, the Finnish economy expanded 0.4% in seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter terms in Q3, down from Q2’s revised 0.8% figure (previously reported: +0.4% quarter-on-quarter). In year-on-year terms, growth decelerated to 2.8% in Q3, down from the revised rate of 3.0% in Q2 (previously reported: +2.3% year-on-year).
Finland GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects the domestic economy to expand 2.5% in 2018 and 1.6% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists, however, are somewhat more cautious. They expect an expansion of 2.2% in 2018, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.9%, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Author: Joffrey Simonet, Economist