Eurozone Industry January 2020

Eurozone

Eurozone: Industrial output rebounds more than expected in January ahead of coronavirus blow

March 12, 2020

Industrial output jumped a seasonally-adjusted 2.3% over the previous month in January, contrasting December’s 1.8% slump. The reading surprised market expectations on the upside.

January’s bounce back was underpinned by marked rebounds in the production of intermediate, capital, durable consumer and non-durable consumer goods, as well as by a much softer contraction in the production of energy.

Looking at the individual economies for which data is available, industrial production increased in 10 countries in January, including heavyweights Germany, France, Italy and Spain—although the latter recorded just a marginal uptick. On the flip side, it contracted in Latvia, Lithuania and Finland.

On an annual basis, industrial production declined 1.9% in January, a softer contraction than December’s 3.6% dive. Lastly, annual average variation in industrial production inched up to minus 1.7% from October’s minus 1.8%.

Commenting on the release, Bert Colijn, Eurozone senior economist at ING, stated:

“Looking ahead, the trajectory of industrial production is anyone’s guess at the moment. February data could still be decent as surveys have indicated that the pace of decline in production has slowed, but March disruptions are very hard to put a number on right now, as prevention measures against Covid-19 are still developing. It is safe to say that an end to the industrial recession will likely be postponed until the Covid-19 impact subsides.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see industrial production rising 0.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2021, panelists see industrial production expanding 1.2%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Economist

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Euro Area Industry by country January 20 20

Note: Month-on-month var. of seasonally-adjusted industrial production and annual average growth rate in %. Data for Austria, Belgium and Cyprus refers to August.
Source: Eurostat


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