Eurozone GDP Q3 2016

Eurozone

Eurozone: Complete data confirms steady growth in Q3

December 6, 2016

The third estimate of GDP released by Eurostat revealed that growth was steady in the Eurozone in the third quarter. GDP increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in Q3 over the previous quarter, which matched the first and second preliminary estimates. The result is also the same as Q2’s 0.3% expansion. A solid performance in the domestic economy drove the result, while the external sector dragged on growth.

Households continued to benefit from improving labor market conditions and low inflation and private consumption ticked up in the third quarter. Private consumption grew 0.3% over the previous period (Q2: +0.2% quarter-on-quarter). In addition, a less austere fiscal position pushed government consumption up a notch to 0.5% growth (Q2: +0.4% qoq). However, fixed investment continued to be a weak spot in the GDP figures and recorded the lowest growth rate in over one year. Fixed investment expanded 0.2%, down from Q2’s 1.2% increase. The deceleration was likely influenced by the Brexit vote at the end of June as increased uncertainty probably caused firms to postpone investment decisions.

Brexit uncertainty likely also hit exports, which expanded a meagre 0.1% in Q3 (Q2: +1.2% qoq), the worst result since Q4 2012. Subdued external demand, along with heightened uncertainty, is weighing on the external sector. Meanwhile, imports expanded 0.2%, down from 1.2% in Q2. Overall, the external sector subtracted 0.1 percentage points from GDP growth, a deterioration from the flat contribution in Q2. It is unlikely that momentum will firm up going forward given the expected sharp slowdown in the UK—one of the Eurozone’s main trading partners—and an overall weak outlook for global trade.

On an annual basis, GDP growth was stable at Q2’s 1.7% in Q3.

Looking forward, the Eurozone’s growth story should remain largely unchanged as supportive monetary policy, an improving labor market and less austere fiscal policy support the economy. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the Euro area economy to expand 1.6% in 2016, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2017, panelists expect the economy to expand 1.4%, which is also unchanged from last month’s forecast.


Author: Angela Bouzanis, Senior Economist

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Eurozone GDP Chart


Euro GDP Q3 2016 1

Note: Quarter-on-quarter changes of seasonally-adjusted GDP and year-on-year variation in %.
Source: Eurostat


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