Eurozone Economic Sentiment

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Eurozone: Eurozone sentiment drops to lowest level in eight months

August 28, 2014

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) published by the European Commission fell to 100.6 points in August, which was down from the 102.1 points recorded in July and below market expectations of 101.5 points. August’s result wiped off the gains recorded in recent months, as economic sentiment now sits at the lowest level this year—and only slightly above its 100-point long-term average.

Geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine and the impact on the Eurozone economy likely affected August’s result. All five categories measured by the ESI deteriorated compared to the previous month, with the strongest drop recorded in retail trade. At a country level, the largest decreases were seen in Italy (-4.1 points) and Slovenia (-2.6 points). Sentiment deteriorated in two of the other major economies in the region, with the highest drop recorded in Germany (-1.9 points), followed by France (-0.6 points). Sentiment was stable in Spain. Malta boasted the highest confidence level in the region in June with 114.0 points, followed by Germany, with 104.1 points.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 0.7% in 2014, which is unchanged over last month’s projection. For 2015, panelists see consumption expanding 1.1%. Panelists expect investment to grow 2.3% in 2014, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2015, panelists see investment increasing 2.9%.


Author:, Head of Data Solutions

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Euro Economic Sentiment August 2014

Note: The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is based on surveys addressed to the manufacturing, services, retail trade and construction sectors, as well as to consumers. Values above 100 indicate an above-average economic sentiment, whereas values below 100 indicate a below-average position.
Source: European Commission


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