Eurozone: Economic sentiment hits 18-month low in November

Economic sentiment in the Eurozone continued to fall in November, maintaining this year’s downward trend. According to the European Commission (EC), the economic sentiment index (ESI) came in at 109.5 points, down from the 109.7 points in October and the worst result seen since May 2017. Nonetheless, sentiment in the Eurozone remains elevated compared to levels seen over the past two decades and November’s reading beat market expectations of a sharper fall to 109.0 points.

Lower confidence among consumers largely drove November’s decline, although it was partly balanced out by higher confidence in the industrial and retail trade sectors. Employment plans were mixed, improving notably in the construction sector but deteriorating in the services sector.

Among member countries, economic sentiment decreased in ten economies, including major-players Italy and Spain. In contrast, sentiment rose in France, Germany and in six other economies.

Eurozone Private Consumption Forecast

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see private consumption growing 1.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. For 2020, panelists see consumption expanding 1.5%. Panelists expect investment to grow 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2020, panelists see investment increasing 2.3%.