Estonia: Industrial activity records largest decline in two years in September

Industrial output sank 7.5% year-on-year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in September, which contrasted August's 0.7% increase. September's figure marked the worst reading since May 2020. The figure was largely driven by a deterioration in manufacturing production, as it recorded the weakest reading since February 2021. In addition, mining and quarrying output weakened.

On a monthly basis, industrial production fell 3.6% in seasonally adjusted terms in September, contrasting August’s 5.1% expansion. Meanwhile, annual average industrial production growth fell to 2.1% in September (August: +3.4%). This signals a worsening trend in the industrial sector.

Our panelists project industrial production to shrink 1.1% in 2023, which is down 1.0 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expand by 2.1% in 2024.