Estonia GDP

Estonia

Estonia: GDP accelerates in Q3

December 9, 2014

GDP increased 2.2% in Q3 over the same period last year according to the revised data Statistics Estonia (SE) published on 9 December. The reading was revised up a notch from the 2.1% expansion reported in the flash estimate and represents an acceleration over the 2.0% increase recorded in Q2. The third quarter result, which was the strongest since Q1 2013, was driven by strong private consumption, a rebound in government spending and a positive contribution from the external sector.

On the domestic side, growth in private consumption increased 5.4% in Q3, which followed the 3.5% expansion registered in Q2. Government consumption rebounded from a 0.4% decrease in Q2 to a 2.4% increase in Q3. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment plunged to a 9.7% decrease in Q3 (Q2: +0.7% year-on-year).

On the external side, exports of goods and services jumped from a 0.3% increase in Q2 to a 4.9% expansion in Q3, which marked the highest reading in five quarters. Meanwhile, imports recovered to a 2.2% increase over the same period of the previous year, which contrasted the 1.9% decrease recorded in Q2. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth increased from 2.0 percentage points in Q2 to 2.4 percentage points in Q3.

GDP increased 0.2% quarter-on-quarter on seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, which came in below the 0.5% growth tallied in the second quarter.

The Central Bank expects GDP growth to reach 2.1% in 2014 and 2.5% in 2015. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see the economy growing 1.7% in 2014, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2015, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.4%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.


Author:, Economist

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Estonia GDP Q3 2014 1

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Estonia and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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