Estonia GDP

Estonia

Estonia: Economy picks up steam slightly more than estimated in Q2

September 8, 2015

GDP increased 2.0% in Q2 over the same period of the previous year, according to the revised data Statistics Estonia (SE) published on 8 September. The reading was revised up a notch from the 1.9% expansion reported in the flash estimate and represented an acceleration from the 1.1% increase recorded in Q1.

On the domestic side, growth in private consumption inched up from 5.5% in Q1 to 5.6% in Q2, which marked an almost three-year high. Gross fixed investment also improved, falling 8.0%, which was a more moderate decline compared to Q2’s 9.6% decrease. However, government consumption moderated, tallying a 0.8% increase in Q2 (Q1: +2.0% year-on-year).

In the external sector, exports of goods and services swung from a 1.8% expansion in Q1 to a 1.1% contraction in Q2, which marked the worst result since Q4 2009. Imports also tallied a multi-year low, contracting 3.3%, which was below the 0.7% fall in Q1. As a result, the external sector’s net contribution to overall economic growth fell from 2.1 percentage points in Q1 to 1.9 percentage points in Q2.

In seasonally- and working-day adjusted terms, GDP rose 0.7% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, which was slightly below the flash estimate of a 0.8% rise and contrasted the 0.3% expansion tallied in the first quarter.

The Government expects GDP growth to reach 2.0% in 2015 and 2.8% in 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast participants see the economy growing 2.1% in 2015, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. In 2016, economic growth is expected to accelerate to 2.8%.


Author:, Economist

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Estonia GDP Q2 2015 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Statistics Estonia and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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