Egypt Inflation December 2020

Egypt

Egypt: Inflation drops slightly in December

January 11, 2021

Consumer prices decreased 0.42% in December over the previous month, which contrasted November's 0.82% increase. Looking at the details of the release, falling prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages dragged the overall reading lower in December.

Inflation came in at 5.4% in December, below November’s 5.7%. December's figure represented the first drop in the inflation rate since August. Accordingly, the trend pointed down slightly, with annual average inflation coming in at 5.0% in December (November: 5.2%). Meanwhile, core inflation inched down to 3.8% from November’s 4.0%.

Regarding December’s reading, Farouk Soussa, economist at Goldman Sachs, commented:

“We maintain our forecasts for sequential monthly CPI, and the decline in December now mechanically decreases our medium-term yoy projections. Real rates remain at historically high levels, and we see inflation averaging +4.6%yoy in H1 2021, subdued by sluggish domestic demand, a strengthening Pound, and quarterly fuel price indexation reducing potential volatility from global energy prices.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to average 6.5% in CY 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.3% in CY 2021.


Author:, Economist

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Egypt Inflation Chart


Egypt Inflation December 20 20 1

Note: Year-on-year and month-on-month variation of urban consumer price index in %.
Source: Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).


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