Egypt GDP Q3 2015

Egypt

Egypt: GDP growth slows in Q1 of FY 2016

February 23, 2016

According to official data, GDP increased 3.0% in the July–September period (the first quarter of fiscal year 2016) over the same period of the previous year. This marked a deceleration compared to the 4.5% increase tallied in the fourth quarter of FY 2015, which was strongest result in three quarters.

On the domestic side, private consumption expanded 4.4%, which followed the 1.5% expansion in Q4. Government private consumption growth accelerated to 5.7% in Q1 (Q4: 3.3% year-on-year). Gross investment rebounded from a 3.0% drop in Q4 to an 8.7% expansion in Q1. On the external side, exports dropped 25.6% in Q1 after having contracted 4.1% in Q4, reflecting the impact of security issues on tourism. Meanwhile, imports fell 6.8% in Q1 (Q4: -15.7% year-on-year) as the impact of government measures to reduce the import bill has put a lid on demand of foreign goods and services.

The Ministry of Finance expects GDP to expand between 4.0% and 4.25% in FY 2016. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the economy to expand 3.7% in fiscal year 2016, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For fiscal year 2017, the panel sees economic growth at 4.2%.


Author:, Head of Data Solutions

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Egypt GDP Q315 0

Note: Year-on-year changes of GDP in %.
Source: Ministry of Finance (MoF) and FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast.


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